What’s on our radar of stock market, economic conditions, and market insights.

As we delve into current trends in asset pricing, one must consider various themes that influence market behaviors and economic indicators. As we assess this date, it’s essential to reflect on historical market data and compare it to the present to gain insights into potential future trends.

As of late April 2026, the ceasefire rally has fully reversed: Iran re-restricted Strait of Hormuz access as of April 19, pushing S&P 500 back to −6.7% YTD (~7,064 on April 21). March CPI confirmed at 3.3% headline — the Hormuz closure drove gasoline up 21.2% — with tariff pass-through the likely next inflationary wave post the April 28 USTR Section 301 public hearing. The IMF’s April 2026 WEO, titled “Global Economy in the Shadow of War,” cut global growth to 3.1% and EM forecasts to 3.9%. The Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% ahead of its April 28–29 FOMC meeting; JPMorgan now flags a potential 25bp hike as the next move. FY2026 deficit: $1.9T (5.8% of GDP); OBBBA pushes US debt/GDP to 120% by 2036. Hyperscaler Q1 earnings begin April 29 — the one structural bullish test ahead.

🌍 Global Macro Dashboard — Major DM & EM Markets (April 2026)

• Economic Uncertainty: Left chart above showing an index of global (GDP weighted) economic uncertainty using NLP techniques, which stays at elevated level even after some de-escalation of tariffs conflict. Investment and big ticket consumption decisions are likely to be negatively impacted in the near term. Simply put, the elevated uncertainty requires some risk premium in the market. In addition, front running of tariffs have pulled demand forward and 2025H2 GDP growths across developed countries have remained subdued. <Read More>
  • Update 03/27/26: S&P 500 down 6.2% YTD as post-election euphoria fades. US labor market deteriorated — payrolls unexpectedly cut 92K in February, unemployment at 4.4%. Eurozone near stagnation (Composite PMI 50.1); France in outright contraction. Recession risk is squarely on the radar for European economies. Iran military conflict is the newest macro wildcard.
  • Update 04/20/26: Labor market partially recovered — payrolls rebounded +178K in March after Feb’s −133K shock, unemployment edged down to 4.3%. Global Composite PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.0; Eurozone at 50.7 (9-month low), barely above stagnation. Iran 2-week ceasefire (April 8) sparked a sharp equity rally, but Iran has re-restricted Strait of Hormuz access as the ceasefire nears expiration — geopolitical volatility remains the dominant near-term risk.
  • Update 04/22/26: IMF April 2026 WEO — “Global Economy in the Shadow of War” — cut global growth to 3.1% and EM forecasts to 3.9%, citing the Iran conflict as the dominant near-term risk. S&P 500 settled at ~7,064 (April 21), −6.7% YTD, as the ceasefire rally fully reversed. Iran re-restricted Strait of Hormuz access April 19; USTR Section 301 public hearing April 28 is the next trade policy inflection point. Two simultaneous macro shocks — energy supply disruption and tariff escalation — make this the most complex uncertainty environment since 2022.
• Valuation: equity market valuation is still rich but not stretched, on standalone basis or relative to treasury yield. The recent drawdown and subsequent recovery is comparable to the 2021-2022 inflation spike episode but so far these moves are reflecting valuation compression and earnings so far remains strong.
  • Update 03/27/26: Despite the Q1 correction, valuations remain stretched. Forward P/E at 19.9x (above 10-year average of 18.9x); CAPE at 39.3x — nearly double the modern-era average. Q1 2026 earnings revisions are tracking lower. Margin for error is thin; any earnings miss could accelerate the drawdown.
  • Update 04/20/26: Forward P/E has risen to ~21.0x despite the YTD drawdown — earnings estimates are being cut faster than prices, 10-year average is ~19.7x. CAPE ~37x. Q1 2026 earnings season underway; hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) report late April through early May, the first real test of Iran cost and tariff margin pass-through. Risk/reward skewed to the downside unless earnings hold.
  • Update 04/22/26: Fwd P/E ~21.0x vs. 10-year average ~19.7x — earnings estimates are being cut faster than prices, widening the valuation premium even as the market has sold off. CAPE ~37–39x, more than double the long-run median of 16x. Hyperscaler Q1 earnings: Google (Apr 29), Microsoft + Meta (Apr 30), Amazon (May 1) — the pivotal test of whether AI capex guidance survives Iran energy cost pressures and tariff headwinds. A guidance miss could trigger material re-rating.
• Tariffs impact: Even at 10% universal tariffs, the effective tariff rate(weighted by value of imports) for the US is about 20% compared to less than 5% over the past decade. So material impact to inflation and corporate margins are still at risk. But so far we have not seen the pass-through to US inflation. Read more about tariffs <here>.
  • Update 03/27/26: Legal inflection point — US Supreme Court ruled IEEPA-based tariffs unlawful on Feb 20, 2026. Administration replaced them with Section 301 and Section 232 investigations, maintaining protectionist stance under new legal authority. China now faces an effective tariff rate of ~34.7%, highest among major trading partners. Legal limbo and bilateral tensions persist; near-term resolution is unlikely.
  • Update 04/20/26: Administration operating under Section 122 authority post-IEEPA ruling. USTR initiated Section 301 investigations in March; public hearing scheduled April 28 — next policy inflection point. China effective tariff rate ~31.6% (Wharton, Apr 15). March CPI energy surge (3.3% headline) is currently Iran-driven, but tariff pass-through to consumer goods is likely the next inflationary wave as Section 301 findings materialize post-hearing.
  • Update 04/22/26: USTR Section 301 public hearing April 28 — now 6 days away — is the key policy inflection point for the next tariff escalation wave on China. Effective rate holds at ~31.6% (Wharton, Apr 15). March CPI 3.3% is currently Iran-driven, but Section 301 findings are expected to trigger a consumer goods pass-through wave. Q1 earnings corporate margin guidance — especially import-heavy sectors — will be the first real read on pass-through magnitude.
• US exceptionalism: global investors have been fading the idea of US exceptionalism manifested on currency, treasury and stock market. With long term international investors being the marginal seller, risks of higher yield in treasury market, and lower dollar is to the upside.
  • Update 03/27/26: Iran conflict (escalated March 2026) has created a new geopolitical risk premium — 10Y Treasury yield climbed to 4.42%, highest since July 2025. OBBBA fiscal stimulus (~$500B added to 2026 deficit) provides near-term growth cushion but raises long-term debt sustainability concerns and limits Fed flexibility. Dollar weakened on growth disappointment and fading US exceptionalism narrative.
  • Update 04/20/26: 10Y yield declined to 4.31% on Iran ceasefire optimism, but the fiscal picture is darkening rapidly: FY2026 deficit projected at $1.9T (5.8% of GDP); OBBBA adds $500B this year and $4.1T over the decade, pushing debt/GDP to 120% by 2036 — well above the post-WWII record of 106%. Dollar under continued pressure. JPMorgan now flags next Fed move could be a 25bp hike if inflation re-accelerates on renewed Hormuz disruption.
  • Update 04/22/26: 10Y Treasury yield at 4.26–4.31% — Hormuz re-restriction adds upside yield risk as energy inflation re-accelerates. IMF projects US public debt at 120% of GDP by 2036 (post-WWII record was 106%); OBBBA adds $4.7T to deficits over the decade. Dollar under continued structural pressure — fading US exceptionalism is not cyclical. Fed April 28–29 FOMC statement tone on hike vs. cut bias will be closely parsed by global bond markets.
• Inflation volatility: what the market may be under appreciating is that the fragile supply chain and potential trade diversion resulting from near-shoring or friend-shoring can create a lot of short term price spikes here and there. One can expect inflation to have more up and downs from time to time. It may be tricky to find direct hedge for this other than rates vol products.
  • Update 03/27/26: Feb 2026 CPI at 2.4% headline / 2.5% core — sticky above the Fed’s 2% target despite three rate cuts in late 2025. Iran conflict is disrupting energy supply chains, adding inflationary pressure not seen since 2023. Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% at the March FOMC; markets pricing just one 25bp cut in December 2026. “Higher for longer” extended into 2026.
  • Update 04/20/26: March 2026 headline CPI surged to 3.3% YoY (from 2.4% in Feb) — Iran war drove gasoline prices up 21.2%, accounting for ~75% of the monthly rise. Core inflation held at 2.6% YoY. Iran’s 7-week Hormuz closure disrupted ~13 million barrels/day; ceasefire briefly reopened the strait but Iran is re-restricting access as of April 19. JPMorgan now sees next Fed move as a potential 25bp hike — a stark contrast to the rate-cut narrative of late 2025.
  • Update 04/22/26: March CPI confirmed at 3.3% headline YoY — a 23-month high. Iran re-restricted Hormuz access April 19, threatening a second energy shock. Two distinct inflation waves now on the horizon: (1) renewed energy disruption from Hormuz re-closure and (2) tariff pass-through to consumer goods post-April 28 USTR Section 301 hearing. Core CPI at 2.6%, above the 2% target. The Fed’s “higher for longer” stance is increasingly prescient — and a hike is now a live scenario for H2 2026.
• AI Capital Expenditure: The one clear positive structural theme in 2026: AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) remains on track despite macro headwinds. BlackRock notes AI will “keep trumping tariffs and traditional macro drivers” for select sectors. The divergence between AI-exposed and non-AI equities is widening — a K-shaped market within equities. <Read More>
  • Update 04/20/26: Hyperscaler Q1 2026 earnings are the imminent catalyst — Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta report late April through early May, with AI capex guidance under the microscope. AI-exposed equities continue to significantly outperform non-AI names, deepening the K-shaped market divergence. If hyperscalers maintain or raise capex guidance amid macro headwinds, AI infrastructure spending remains the single structural bullish thesis for 2026.
  • Update 04/22/26: Hyperscaler Q1 earnings begin in 7 days — Google (Apr 29), Microsoft + Meta (Apr 30), Amazon (May 1). AI capex guidance is the critical variable: if hyperscalers maintain or raise infrastructure budgets despite Iran energy costs and tariff headwinds, it validates the structural bullish thesis. If they guide lower, AI equity premiums face significant decompression. Azure, Google Cloud, and AWS data center buildout are the leading indicators of the broader AI infrastructure supercycle.

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